New Big Line Coming: UPDATE
July 17, 2007 in Big Line
…with the updated numbers and COH, we’ll be sending out a new summation shortly.
The trick at VOM is getting all three of us to agree on what the numbers mean, where the campaigns really are, who inflated their numbers… you get the idea.
UPDATE: New Big Line up, with some updates waiting for information…
Virginia Big Line
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VIRGINIA SENATE 1st Senate District (R) Tricia Stall (3-1) Tricia continues to plow ahead with grassroots and phones... (D) John Miller (5-1) Still a lackluster effort... we've yet to see the spark that is going to make this a win. 6th Senate District (R) Nick Rerras (3-1) Democrats aren't going away, but neither is Rerras... é (D) Ralph Northam (5-1) Astroturf for grassroots won't make up for fundraising advantage 11th Senate District é (R) Steve Martin (2-1) Martin knows his district and represents it well... ê (D) Alex McMurtrie (5-1) Self-financed candidate, but where are the grassroots? 13th Senate District (R) Fred Quayle (2-1) This one is out of reach for the Democrats ê (D) Steve Heretick (7-1) Credible candidate, wrong district. 17th Senate District (D) Edd Houck (2-1) Edd gets hit on immigration... abuser fee stunt wasn't all that great. é (R) Chris Yakabouski (5-1) Good hit on illegal immigration makes Yak a leader... no Edd signs in Spotsy either! 20th Senate District ê (D) Roscoe Reynolds (3-1) Joe Stanley and Ben Tribbett come to the rescue? é (R) Jeff Evans (3-1) Great blog hit on Roscoe makes the Dems bring in the heavy artillery! 22nd Senate District é (R) Ralph Smith (2-1) That cracking sound you hear from Roanoke??? ê (D) Michael Breiner (8-1) ...it's the sound of the Brenier campaign's back being broken. This race is done. 24th Senate District (R) Emmett Hanger (2-1) Grassroots still on fire... infighting doesn't help. (D) David Cox (6-1) Conservative vs. moderate infighting is getting worse... ê (L) Arin Sime (15-1) STD says "no thanks" to Sime, Myron Rhodes. 26th Senate District (R) Mark Obenshain (2-1) Obenshain for AG? Not yet... first things, first. (D) Maxine Roles (6-1) Tough, tough uphill climb in the Valley. 27th Senate District (R) Jill Holtzman-Vogel (2-1) Still plugging along, campaign staff changes a bit odd. é (D) Karen Schultz (5-1) Tate aftermath helping Schultz a bit... 28th Senate District (R) Richard Stuart (2-1) Chichester's money, Howell's politics... but Stafford could prove problematic. ê (D) Albert Pollard (5-1) Stupid debate attack on Stuart for prosecuting drug lords... 29th Senate District ê (D) Chuck Colgan (3-1) Lackluster fundraising makes this race officially a toss-up. é (R) Bob Fitzsimmonds (3-1) Strong fundraising makes this challenger race a potential GOP pick-up. 33rd Senate District ê (D) Mark Herring (3-1) More money, favorable demographics leans this race left. é (R) Patricia Phillips (5-1) Surprisingly strong showing in fundraising... 34th Senate District (R) Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis (3-1) Strong fundraising advantage, plenty more where that came from... ê (D) Chap Petersen (4-1) Hits JMDD on abuser fees... shortly after waffling on them himself. duh. 37th Senate District é (R) Ken Cuccinelli (3-1) Good fundraising, great grassroots, and on the offensive against very liberal opposition. ê (D) Janet Oleszek (5-1) Downgrade here... Janet just isn't getting the traction against a strong Cuccinelli campaign 39th Senate District ê (R) Jay O'Brien (3-1) O'Brien is in the fight of his life here... é (D) George Barker (5-1) Finally a bump that is earned. Barker is making the push... HOUSE OF DELEGATES 1st House District é (R) Terry Kilgore (2-1) Terry's got nothing to worry about here... ê (D) Jerry Taylor (10-1) Best o' luck, me boy-o 5th House District (R) Bill Carrico (3-1) Close NOVA matchup é (D) Suzie Dixon-Garner (4-1) Picking up steam, getting stronger 6th House District (R) Anne Crockett-Stark (3-1) Tough district, but managable ê (D) Bill Thomas (4-1) Needs more $$$ to make this seriously competitive 7th House District ê (D) Peggy Frank (3-1) Slack fundrasing made this a contest... é (R) Dave Nutter (3-1) Strong fundraising, competitive campaign. 9th House District é (D) Eric Ferguson (3-1) Fundraising advantage, previous campaign in '05, good district to work from é (R) Charles Poindexter (4-1) Heck of an effort, isn't going down or away without a fight! 11th House District (D) Lee Ware (2-1) Roanoke Dem has six figures in the warchest é (I) Mac MaCadden (9-1) Doubt this will become interesting; $10K is a voice. 13th House District é (R) Bob Marshall (2-1) Uber-conservative benefits from abuser fee opposition... ê (D) Bruce Rommelt (6-1) Ain't. Gonna. Happen. 14th House District é (R) Danny Marshall (2-1) Silly Dems... "silly" as in even Gov. Kaine defended Marshall... ê (D) Adam Tomer (6-1) Kindly say "thanks" to the Joint Democratic Caucus for ruining your shot... 16th House District ê (R) Donald Merricks (3-1) Heir to Robert Hurt has a tough race/district é (D) Andy Parker (3-1) Good district for the Dems... 19th House District é (I) Lacey Putney (2-1) Sizeable warchest barely makes this a race (D) Lewis Medlin (6-1) Why is he "medlin" in this race? Is this mic on? 21st House District (R) John Welch (3-1) Fundraising and name ID are the kickers... é (D) Bob Mathieson (4-1) Nice warchest makes this a potential D pickup. 26th House District é (R) Matt Lohr (2-1) Solid district, good warchest, good name ID. ê (D) Carolyn Frank (6-1) Tough race... needs the cash and the grassroots to be serious. 28th House District (R) Bill Howell (2-1) It's the Speaker of the House... what's the big deal? é (D) Clyde Matthews (6-1) Abuser fees! 31st House District é (R) Scott Linamfelter (2-1) No one outworks Scott... ê (D) Bill Day (5-1) Tough district, tough race, not enough cash (yet) 32nd House District ê (D) David Poisson (3-1) Lots of cash may make this R district tough to win... é (R) Lynn Chapman (4-1) ...but Lynn is the next Paul Harris for the RPV. Good district too. 33rd House District ê (R) Joe May (3-1) Rumors of poor staff and conservative opposition put this seat in play. é (D) Marty Martinez (4-1) Good fundraising performance and a mobilized grassroots game... watch out! 34th House District ê (R) Dave Hunt (3-1) Callahan's old district; big ol' target on it. é (D) Maggie Vanderhye (3-1) Excellent showing for cash, inside the beltway, and good grassroots... 35th House District é (D) Steve Shannon (2-1) Warchest looks OK, district looks good. (R) Arthur Purves (6-1) Knew it was a tough race, jumped in anyway. Working hard, too. 40th House District é (R) Tim Hugo (2-1) Tough district, nice warchest, good network of volunteers. ê (D) Rex Simmons (5-1) Gotta rely on something other than ActBlue and demographics... 45th House District (D) David Englin (3-1) There's no crying in baseball! é (R) Mark Allen (4-1) Can Republicans win in NOVA? This race will say a lot if it's won... 50th House District (R) Jackson Miller (3-1) Short line to cash, didn't have much time in the House... é (D) Jeannette Rishell (4-1) Is bringing the wood... will probably get a big line upgrade by Labor Day... 51st House District (R) Faisal Gill (3-1) Will have to overcome rumors, get on issues to carry the day. é (D) Paul Nichols (3-1) Potential Dem pickup due to nasty GOP primary... 52nd House District é (R) Jeffery Frederick (2-1) $330K in the bank. Yes, $330K.... ê (D) Chris Brown (6-1) Can't use the abuser fees on Jeffy... don't see this one happenin'. 54th House District (R) Bobby Orrock (2-1) Gets token opposition... but this, plus abuser fees, plus a skimpy warchest means effort. é (I) Kimbra Kincheloe (6-1) Ever hear of VVAW? You will after this... 59th House District ê (I) Watt Abbitt (3-1) This one is going to be close... é (D) Connie Brennan (3-1) Can the Albemarle Dems reach out to rural African-American voters? 67th House District ê (D) Chuck Caputo (3-1) Was gifted the 67th in 2005, won't be so easy this time... é (R) Mark Cadin (3-1) Caputo has the cash advantage, but everything else points to this as a pick-up. 68th House District ê (I) Katherine Waddell (4-1) Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. é (R) Manoli Loupassi (3-1) Nice warchest, would be stronger if not a three-way race. (D) Bill Grogan (4-1) Three way race is the only bit of bright light, but his cash flow looks OK 72nd House District é (R) Jim Massie (2-1) Henrico's GOP won't let this one go. ê (D) Tom Herbert (8-1) Not a chance... 78th House District (R) John Cosgrove (2-1) May have to get the lead out on grassroots and fundraising, but should be OK (D) Michael Meyer (6-1) Tough contest in this district... and Cosgrove isn't going to lay down for long 82nd House District é (R) Harry Purkey (2-1) Coming back from '05 challenge, Purkey needs a bit more cash (D) Bob MacIver (5-1) Running hard... if he gets more cash in the bank, this could become quite competitive. 83rd House District (R) Chris Stolle (3-1) A conservative named Stolle? GASP! é (D) Joe Bouchard (3-1) Still running behind Stolle, but running well. 86th House District (R) Tom Rust (2-1) OK district, but huge fundraising advantage é (D) Jay Donahue (5-1) Been running a very skillful race... we're impressed, anyhow. 87th House District ê (D) Paula Miller (4-1) ... is in trouble, and not the kind of trouble easily gotten out of é (R) Hank Giffin (3-1) Admiral Giffin is doing everything right in a district he should win. GOP pickup here. 88th House District é (R) Mark Cole (2-1) Slow and steady fundraising, slow and steady candidate. ê (D) Carlos del Toro (5-1) "Jabba del Toro" isn't walking his district as he should... 96th House District é (R) Brenda Pogge (3-1) Nagging Noll is a nuisance negating notions of near-sighted nanny-staters ê (D) Troy Farlow (5-1) Translation: Tell Noll to shut up if you want to win.
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