Yes sirree.  Joe Stanley joins the Pantheon of those receiving the ass-stamp, for the crime of attacking the ODBA by comparing them to NAMBLA, as well the author of the infamous Miller comic, earning the reputation as a racist and “jewbaiter” (which no one in their right mind argues otherwise).

VOM has heard both Democrats and Republicans absolutely stunned (bemused is more like it) at this stunt.  It has the ability to tear down most of Joe’s political clients, as well as Ben Tribbett of Not Larry Sabato… though he no longer officially consults, I’m sure fewer people (like Chap Petersen) will want to be associated with NAMBLA-promoters like Ben Tribbett and Joe Stanley. 


The saddest part?  While Ben may not know any better, Joe certainly does.  What a shame.


VJP is right — we completely left this off the radar, and seeing as we did we’re going to do a complete breakdown.

First, Chris Stolle has a fundraising advantage both in cash-on-hand and a pipeline to his brother State Senator Ken StolleJoe Bouchard is holding his own that will make this a contest, but given the fact that the COH balance is almost two months old, these numbers are more conjecture than fact…

Second, Stolle has made the decision to emphasize his conservative credentials… not a bad play considering the moderate reputation of his brother.  Bouchard has an opportunity to play this up, but Stolle has done a very good job of block-tackling this.

The third and final component is grassroots, and here is where Bouchard has a significant advantage over Stolle.  Some of this is merely the national climate.  Certainly the Stolle family is no stranger to the district, but Bouchard has hit the ground running pretty darned hard.  Demographics in the district don’t help.

In short, this race is a true toss-up.  Stolle and Bouchard will have to run the race of their lives in order to pull this into their respective columns.

This one was blown wide open by Jim Riley over at Virginia Virtucon, but the results are going to forever cripple an already floundering Roscoe Reynolds campaign.

The “Macacameister” Joe Stanley, founder of Yellow Dog Strategies, has been the consultant of many Democratic campaigns, including Creigh Deeds, Jim Webb, and a host of smaller DPVA races.

Reynolds is rumored to be done with Joe Stanley’s services.  Not only is a lawsuit looming against Joe Stanley, many of his clients get to make a decision: will they keep someone who uses NAMBLA as a campaign tactic?  Doubtful they will, as we can reportedly expect many of these firms/candidates to start disassociating themselves soon.

And whew!  Was this a big list!!!

We’ll come out with a new chart ranking the swing on the House and Senate… graphs and explanations always help clear the air (and the hype).

The one dysfunction we’re learning about the “Big Line” is brevity.  We can’t put in all of the information we’d like to as to why certain races are viewed as they are.  For instance, some of us may disagree with the fact that we didn’t list all of the House races.  Some may disagree that certain races are even competitive, but we were careful to include the “swing factors” that are making the most impact.

Let the discussion (and on the ground recommendations) begin!


One of the major parties is drafting as part of their agenda the implementation of a 100-person special police force solely for the purposes of going after illegal immigrants (we kid you not) with no plan on what happens to this fully funded and idle force once these illegal immigrants are shipped back.

We thought we should do a brief poll… what do you think about this idea?

POLL: What would you say to a 100-person special police force for “immigration enforcement”?

1) Excellent! It’s about time we had special police for immigration!
2) It’s OK. We need more police.
3) HECK NO! This is America, not Nazi Germany!

View Results
Make your own poll 

You’ll be surprised which party is proposing this idea…

That’s right… by popular demand (and we mean popular… woah!) we are bringing everyone up to speed on our House of Delegates races!  The results are going to surprise most of you, as they are certainly shocking us.

Beyond that, whomever was behind the Roscoe Reynolds hit this week is a genius.  Reynolds is definitely reeling from the attack, though it may bring in bigger guns and more attention in the long haul… stay tuned!


If you want to know why, go to his site… and no, we’re not linking.

UPDATE:  For those of you who don’t get the joke, it’s a spin from a recurring sketch on Late Night with Conan O’Brien, used when people BS what they know.  Jim Carrey gets the drop on Conan in this clip:

Guess not everyone is a Conan O’Brien fan!  Too bad the “ass stamp” couldn’t be applied in RL, Faux News, or to people in general.  It’s like a little red A…

Heck, we ought to just go make this a caption contest: 


(h/t to Bearing Drift)

Note to self:  Don’t go videotaping at the behest of some DPVA e-mail and get caught drinking alcohol!!!

This has to be the dumbest thing we’ve ever seen.

First, DPVA can’t even get their own site right, then they come out with this?!?! 

Embarassing is the unanimous vote at VOM.

VOM Liberal is severely non-plussed.  VOM Conservative is laughing hysterically, while VOM libertarian says he has nothing to brag about.

Someone needs to fire their web consultant.  This would be a huge ê if we ranked state parties.

UPDATE:  Bearing Drift calls on State Senator Creigh Deeds to fulfill his Blogs United promise and get DPVA to take the site down.  Well… they don’t say that… but Deeds should before too many people find out about this donkey of a site.

Get your July 30th blog rankings and new big line while they’re HOT!

Welcome to a new, weekly insert for VOM.  Here are the exclusive rankings for the 2007 Virginia Senate rankings.  As you can see, there isn’t much movement, with 32 seats safely in the hands of the GOP and Democratic Parties and eight key races to watch.


What is interesting is that Republicans have managed to turn at least one seat into a potential pickup (Colgan), while the Democrats are looking better in at least one seat (O’Brien).

Worse still, Democratic approval ratings in Washington are at 14%.  Bush doesn’t come in much better with low-to-mid 20s, but Northern Virginia politics are centered at the national level.  Polls are reflecting a deep dissatisfaction with the status quo, so while Republicans have much to defend, the DPVA has to offer an alternative.  Quickly. 

If the election were held today, VOM would call it for the Republicans 23-17, with two seats changing hands.  Naturally, this is way premature, and we’re certain at least one Dem seat will come off the “lean” category after the September reports come in.  That having been said, Republicans are (surprisingly) in a better position to win their pick-up than the Democrats… a 24-16 Virginia Senate is not an impossibility.

The cult spreads!

Of course, we disagree with some of Mr. James Martin’s findings… but imitation is the highest form of flattery!


Get ’em while they’re hot!

Sure they won, but there’s no excuse for any Republican to come with a few percentage points in Alexandria.

Sources on the ground say the Dems worked hard, but the GOP worked harder.  Both sides seem to be trying to figure out what went wrong/right.

A win is a win.  But not so close.  Not in Alexandria.

…with the updated numbers and COH, we’ll be sending out a new summation shortly.

The trick at VOM is getting all three of us to agree on what the numbers mean, where the campaigns really are, who inflated their numbers… you get the idea.

UPDATE:  New Big Line up, with some updates waiting for information…

Featured updates in the BIG LINE are new odds for the 11th Senate Race between Steve Martin and Alex McMurtrie.

Also featuring the big news of the week concerning the abuser fees and Governor Tim Kaine’s mysterious deletion of the provision that would have applied the abuser fees evenly… this one is huge folks.



One of the most egregious errors of the “abuser fee” debate is the fact that the fines apply only to Virginians, and not to out of state drivers. 

So VOM’s crack bookies and oddsmakers did a bit of research in the past bills… was it the dastardly House Republicans who did this nefarious deed???

House Passed Version – Applies to Residents and Non-Residents

§ 46.2-206.1. Imposition of certain additional fees on certain drivers.

B. The civil remedial fees established by this section shall be assessed on any resident of Virginia operating a motor vehicle on the highways of Virginia, including persons to whom Virginia driver’s licenses, commercial driver’s licenses, or learner’s permits have been issued pursuant to this title; persons operating motor vehicles without licenses or whose license has been revoked or suspended; and persons operating motor vehicles with a license issued by a jurisdiction outside Virginia.

Guess not… well then, it must of been those crotchety old Senate Republicans ramming this through in conference!

General Assembly Conference Report – Applies to Residents and Non-Residents

§ 46.2-206.1. Imposition of certain additional fees on certain drivers.

B. The civil remedial fees established by this section shall be assessed on any resident of Virginia operating a motor vehicle on the highways of Virginia, including persons to whom Virginia driver’s licenses, commercial driver’s licenses, or learner’s permits have been issued pursuant to this title; persons operating motor vehicles without licenses or whose license has been revoked or suspended; and persons operating motor vehicles with a license issued by a jurisdiction outside Virginia.

Ooo… strike two!  Then who on earth deleted the line stating that out-of-state drivers would have to pay the same fines as taxpaying Virginians?

Governor’s Substitute§ 46.2-206.1. Imposition of certain additional fees on certain drivers.

B. The civil remedial fees established by this section shall be assessed on any resident of Virginia operating a motor vehicle on the highways of Virginia, including persons to whom Virginia driver’s licenses, commercial driver’s licenses, or learner’s permits have been issued pursuant to this title; and persons operating motor vehicles without licenses or whose license has been revoked or suspended.


We give this our four-toupee salute.  Or perhaps a four Jim-Moran-punching-a-kid salute

Ouch, Mr. Speaker!


Almost like the real thing!

(h/t to VJP)

Another American icon passes away.

So goes the rumor.  Survey says…. don’t count on it.

Last year, the rumors went flying that AG Bob McDonnell might be considering a run for Senate in 2008.  This doesn’t appear likely at all, and even less so with Bill Bolling

While most Republicans would love to see one or the other run for an open U.S. Senate seat vacated by John Warner, it looks as if both GOP gubernatorial candidates are still set for a collision course in 2009.

Regardless, if things change either Bolling or McDonnell will have to muscle past Rep. Tom Davis, whose prep work for 2008 has seemingly begun in earnest.

Of course, the VOM liberal reminds us all that any GOP primary winner will have to go up against a fresh and unchallenged Mark Warner, who will indeed be seeking the Democratic nomination for Senate.  Tough go no matter what in ’08 for the GOP.

Next Page »

  • Virginia Big Line

    Tips? E-mail us at Virginia Oddsmaker

    1st Senate District
    (R) Tricia Stall (3-1)
    Tricia continues to plow ahead with grassroots and phones...
    (D) John Miller (5-1)
    Still a lackluster effort... we've yet to see the spark that is going to make this a win.
    6th Senate District
    (R) Nick Rerras (3-1)
    Democrats aren't going away, but neither is Rerras...
    é (D) Ralph Northam (5-1)
    Astroturf for grassroots won't make up for fundraising advantage
    11th Senate District
    é (R) Steve Martin (2-1)
    Martin knows his district and represents it well...
    ê (D) Alex McMurtrie (5-1)
    Self-financed candidate, but where are the grassroots?
    13th Senate District
    (R) Fred Quayle (2-1)
    This one is out of reach for the Democrats
    ê (D) Steve Heretick (7-1)
    Credible candidate, wrong district.
    17th Senate District
    (D) Edd Houck  (2-1)
    Edd gets hit on immigration... abuser fee stunt wasn't all that great.
    é (R) Chris Yakabouski (5-1)
    Good hit on illegal immigration makes Yak a leader... no Edd signs in Spotsy either!
    20th Senate District
    ê (D) Roscoe Reynolds (3-1)
    Joe Stanley and Ben Tribbett come to the rescue?
    é (R) Jeff Evans (3-1)
    Great blog hit on Roscoe makes the Dems bring in the heavy artillery!
    22nd Senate District
    é (R) Ralph Smith (2-1)
    That cracking sound you hear from Roanoke???
    ê (D) Michael Breiner (8-1)'s the sound of the Brenier campaign's back being broken.  This race is done.
    24th Senate District
    (R) Emmett Hanger (2-1)
    Grassroots still on fire... infighting doesn't help.
    (D) David Cox (6-1)
    Conservative vs. moderate infighting is getting worse...
    ê (L) Arin Sime (15-1)
    STD says "no thanks" to Sime, Myron Rhodes.
    26th Senate District
    (R) Mark Obenshain (2-1)
    Obenshain for AG?  Not yet... first things, first.
    (D) Maxine Roles (6-1)
    Tough, tough uphill climb in the Valley.
    27th Senate District
    (R) Jill Holtzman-Vogel (2-1)
    Still plugging along, campaign staff changes a bit odd.
    é (D)  Karen Schultz (5-1)
    Tate aftermath helping Schultz a bit...
    28th Senate District
    (R) Richard Stuart (2-1)
    Chichester's money, Howell's politics... but Stafford could prove problematic.
    ê (D) Albert Pollard (5-1)
    Stupid debate attack on Stuart for prosecuting drug lords...
    29th Senate District
    ê (D) Chuck Colgan (3-1)
    Lackluster fundraising makes this race officially a toss-up.
    é (R) Bob Fitzsimmonds (3-1)
    Strong fundraising makes this challenger race a potential GOP pick-up.
    33rd Senate District
    ê (D) Mark Herring (3-1)
    More money, favorable demographics leans this race left.
    é (R) Patricia Phillips (5-1)
    Surprisingly strong showing in fundraising...
    34th Senate District
    (R) Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis (3-1)
    Strong fundraising advantage, plenty more where that came from...
    ê (D) Chap Petersen (4-1)
    Hits JMDD on abuser fees... shortly after waffling on them himself.  duh.
    37th Senate District
    é (R) Ken Cuccinelli (3-1)
    Good fundraising, great grassroots, and on the offensive against very liberal opposition.
    ê (D) Janet Oleszek (5-1)
    Downgrade here... Janet just isn't getting the traction against a strong Cuccinelli campaign
    39th Senate District
    ê (R) Jay O'Brien (3-1)
    O'Brien is in the fight of his life here...
    é (D) George Barker (5-1)
    Finally a bump that is earned.  Barker is making the push...
    1st House District
    é (R) Terry Kilgore (2-1)
    Terry's got nothing to worry about here...
    ê (D) Jerry Taylor (10-1)
    Best o' luck, me boy-o
    5th House District
    (R) Bill Carrico (3-1)
    Close NOVA matchup
    é (D) Suzie Dixon-Garner (4-1)
    Picking up steam, getting stronger
    6th House District
    (R) Anne Crockett-Stark (3-1)
    Tough district, but managable
    ê (D) Bill Thomas (4-1)
    Needs more $$$ to make this seriously competitive
    7th House District
    ê (D) Peggy Frank (3-1)
    Slack fundrasing made this a contest...
    é (R)  Dave Nutter (3-1)
    Strong fundraising, competitive campaign.
    9th House District
    é (D) Eric Ferguson (3-1)
    Fundraising advantage, previous campaign in '05, good district to work from
    é (R) Charles Poindexter (4-1)
    Heck of an effort, isn't going down or away without a fight!
    11th House District
    (D) Lee Ware (2-1)
    Roanoke Dem has six figures in the warchest
    é (I) Mac MaCadden (9-1)
    Doubt this will become interesting; $10K is a voice.
    13th House District
    é (R) Bob Marshall (2-1)
    Uber-conservative benefits from abuser fee opposition...
    ê (D) Bruce Rommelt (6-1)
    Ain't.  Gonna.  Happen.
    14th House District
    é (R) Danny Marshall (2-1)
    Silly Dems... "silly" as in even Gov. Kaine defended Marshall...
    ê (D) Adam Tomer (6-1)
    Kindly say "thanks" to the Joint Democratic Caucus for ruining your shot...
    16th House District
    ê (R) Donald Merricks (3-1)
    Heir to Robert Hurt has a tough race/district
    é (D) Andy Parker (3-1)
    Good district for the Dems...
    19th House District
    é (I) Lacey Putney (2-1)
    Sizeable warchest barely makes this a race
    (D) Lewis Medlin (6-1)
    Why is he "medlin" in this race?  Is this mic on?
    21st House District
    (R) John Welch (3-1)
    Fundraising and name ID are the kickers...
    é (D) Bob Mathieson (4-1)
    Nice warchest makes this a potential D pickup.
    26th House District
    é (R) Matt Lohr (2-1)
    Solid district, good warchest, good name ID.
    ê (D) Carolyn Frank (6-1)
    Tough race... needs the cash and the grassroots to be serious.
    28th House District
    (R) Bill Howell (2-1)
    It's the Speaker of the House... what's the big deal?
    é (D) Clyde Matthews (6-1)
    Abuser fees!
    31st House District
    é (R) Scott Linamfelter (2-1)
    No one outworks Scott...
    ê (D) Bill Day (5-1)
    Tough district, tough race, not enough cash (yet)
    32nd House District
    ê (D) David Poisson (3-1)
    Lots of cash may make this R district tough to win...
    é (R) Lynn Chapman (4-1)
    ...but Lynn is the next Paul Harris for the RPV.  Good district too.
    33rd House District
    ê (R) Joe May (3-1)
    Rumors of poor staff and conservative opposition put this seat in play.
    é (D) Marty Martinez (4-1)
    Good fundraising performance and a mobilized grassroots game... watch out!
    34th House District
    ê (R) Dave Hunt (3-1)
    Callahan's old district; big ol' target on it.
    é (D) Maggie Vanderhye (3-1)
    Excellent showing for cash, inside the beltway, and good grassroots...
    35th House District
    é (D) Steve Shannon (2-1)
    Warchest looks OK, district looks good.
    (R) Arthur Purves (6-1)
    Knew it was a tough race, jumped in anyway.  Working hard, too.
    40th House District
    é (R) Tim Hugo (2-1)
    Tough district, nice warchest, good network of volunteers.
    ê (D) Rex Simmons (5-1)
    Gotta rely on something other than ActBlue and demographics...
    45th House District
    (D) David Englin (3-1)
    There's no crying in baseball!
    é (R) Mark Allen (4-1)
    Can Republicans win in NOVA?  This race will say a lot if it's won...
    50th House District
    (R) Jackson Miller (3-1)
    Short line to cash, didn't have much time in the House...
    é (D) Jeannette Rishell (4-1)
    Is bringing the wood... will probably get a big line upgrade by Labor Day...
    51st House District
    (R) Faisal Gill (3-1)
    Will have to overcome rumors, get on issues to carry the day.
    é (D) Paul Nichols (3-1)
    Potential Dem pickup due to nasty GOP primary...
    52nd House District
    é (R) Jeffery Frederick (2-1)
    $330K in the bank.  Yes, $330K....
    ê (D) Chris Brown (6-1)
    Can't use the abuser fees on Jeffy... don't see this one happenin'.
    54th House District
    (R) Bobby Orrock (2-1)
    Gets token opposition... but this, plus abuser fees, plus a skimpy warchest means effort.
    é (I) Kimbra Kincheloe (6-1)
    Ever hear of VVAW?  You will after this...
    59th House District
    ê (I) Watt Abbitt (3-1)
    This one is going to be close...
    é (D) Connie Brennan (3-1)
    Can the Albemarle Dems reach out to rural African-American voters?
    67th House District
    ê (D) Chuck Caputo (3-1)
    Was gifted the 67th in 2005, won't be so easy this time...
    é (R) Mark Cadin (3-1)
    Caputo has the cash advantage, but everything else points to this as a pick-up.
    68th House District
    ê (I) Katherine Waddell (4-1)
    Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
    é (R) Manoli Loupassi (3-1)
    Nice warchest, would be stronger if not a three-way race.
    (D) Bill Grogan (4-1)
    Three way race is the only bit of bright light, but his cash flow looks OK
    72nd House District
    é (R) Jim Massie (2-1)
    Henrico's GOP won't let this one go.
    ê (D) Tom Herbert (8-1)
    Not a chance...
    78th House District
    (R) John Cosgrove (2-1)
    May have to get the lead out on grassroots and fundraising, but should be OK
    (D) Michael Meyer (6-1)
    Tough contest in this district... and Cosgrove isn't going to lay down for long
    82nd House District
    é (R) Harry Purkey (2-1)
    Coming back from '05 challenge, Purkey needs a bit more cash
    (D) Bob MacIver (5-1)
    Running hard... if he gets more cash in the bank, this could become quite competitive.
    83rd House District
    (R) Chris Stolle (3-1)
    A conservative named Stolle?  GASP! 
    é (D) Joe Bouchard (3-1)
    Still running behind Stolle, but running well.
    86th House District
    (R) Tom Rust (2-1)
    OK district, but huge fundraising advantage
    é (D) Jay Donahue (5-1)
    Been running a very skillful race... we're impressed, anyhow.
    87th House District
    ê (D) Paula Miller (4-1)
    ... is in trouble, and not the kind of trouble easily gotten out of
    é (R) Hank Giffin (3-1)
    Admiral Giffin is doing everything right in a district he should win.  GOP pickup here.
    88th House District
    é (R) Mark Cole (2-1)
    Slow and steady fundraising, slow and steady candidate. 
    ê (D) Carlos del Toro (5-1)
    "Jabba del Toro" isn't walking his district as he should...
    96th House District
    é (R) Brenda Pogge (3-1)
    Nagging Noll is a nuisance negating notions of near-sighted nanny-staters
    ê (D) Troy Farlow (5-1)
    Translation: Tell Noll to shut up if you want to win.
  • Virginia Oddsmaker (VOM) is a non-partisan, collaborative blog on Virginia politics, focusing on real news, rumors, gossip worth paying attention to, and fact-checking the blogs and the MSM.

  • VOM Blog Stats

    • 16,175 visitors placing their bets
  • TOP VA BLOGS (08-22-07)
    é 1.  Virginia Virtucon
    Drops NLS's drawers.  Everyone laughs.
    é 2.  Raising Kaine
    The Dems owe everything to Lowell Feld, that is painfully obvious.
    é 3.  Leslie Carbone
    Steps up and levels Ben Tribbett on the ODBA/NAMBLA stuff
    é 4.  SWAC Girl
    Transitioning from SWACtion zealot to den mother of the Republican blogs.
    ê 5.  Not Larry Sabato
    If what is rumored is true, Ben Tribbett may be facing some serious legal problems...
    ê 6.  VB Dems
    Attending RPVB meetings now...
    é 7.  Now at the Podium
    Quickly becoming the resident conscience of the Virginia blogosphere.
    é 8.  The Ward View
    Yes, eight is probably way too low...
    ê 9.  Black Velvet Bruce Li
    BVBL is at 1,100 readers a day... not the 10K reported in the WaPo???
    ê 10. The Daily Whackjob!
    We love these guys... but they got sucker punched by Tribbett.
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