Thanks to our crack team of bookies and oddsmakers, VOM can now reveal that we now know who a very sloppy pseudonymn named Alex P. Keaton is.
Our question is why on earth would he anonymize himself, since he already has a blog? Perhaps the 51st HOD primary didn’t go as well as he’d like… but that’s probably too much information.
Unfortunately, since it’s against a pre-drawn agreement here at VOM to out such individuals, we won’t do this. Just enough to send the message.
Of course, not a single one of us will be at Blogs United this weekend. But we’ll send spies (we always send spies).
Given the July 4th holidays, we figured it would be pretty quiet in the blogosphere. Some movement in the Big Line over last week, and our weekly Blog Rankings are up!
It’s coming… Georgia’s Speaker of the House is predicting that a few lawsuits will snap those bloggers back into line.
It’s coming to Virginia sooner than you think.
This is a stupid, sophomoric thing to do.
We hope someone gets sent to jail for this.
…does anyone remember that this was Tim Kaine’s idea?
Just a friendly reminder that for all the political fingerpointing, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans chose to remove this portion of the transportation compromise.
Oh yes, and don’t tell us that you’re not driving 65mph everywhere you go after these abuser fees were enacted! If the goal was safer and more responsible driving, misson accomplished!
To the right! With new and improved Tricia Stall vs. John Miller stain fighting action!
Veteran Republicans say they have quietly raised millions of dollars for a pair of nonprofit organizations that will launch this fall with the ambitious aim of providing a conservative counterweight to the liberal MoveOn.org, Politico.com has learned.
The eight-year-old MoveOn family of organizations — which boast a deep fundraising base, including major support from liberal financier George Soros — has become synonymous with the left’s ability to influence elections outside the party structure. MoveOn.org Political Action says it raised $31.9 million in 2004. It spent much of that to try to defeat President Bush.
Whether this arrives in time to influence the 2007 Virginia elections remains to be seen, but as we’ve seen from Act Blue Virginia’s activity, the netroots are a Democratic advantage unrivaled anywhere, and especially effective in places like Northern Virginia.
Interesting analysis by Kenton Ngo over at 750 Volts:
While the Republican coalition splinters, the Democratic coalition grows no stronger. I would credit a good portion of current gains for the Democratic side to simple disgust with the Republicans. In the zero-sum game of two-party politics, the Democrats have found themselves on the up and up. As Democrats grow insulated in one-party rule, their common enemy–George W. Bush–will have been castigated to the dustbins of history. I see no signs that the party can maintain unity after George W. Bush. I remain optimistic only because the Republicans are markedly less able to.
People are sick of both parties, just less so with the Democrats than Republicans?
What is interesting here is that both parties seem to be sick with the same flu. Liberals, progressives, and populists tear at one another on the left, while conservative, libertarians, and moderates tear at one another on the right.
Sounds about right. Question is, who is holding things together (on either side)?
The Bush-Kennedy-Reid immigration plan is dead (again).
Score one for conservative bloggers. What the netroots do for the Democrats in fundraising, the netroots do for the Republicans on issues and policy.
Virginia Federalist (a pseudonymously run blog) has been running a great series on blog ethics. You can read the first three installments below:
- Virginia Federalist: Pseudonymous Blogging (Part I)
- Virginia Federalist: Pseudonymous Blogging (Part II)
- Virginia Federalist: Pseudonymous Blogging (Part III)
This is following in the wake of at least two websites devoted solely to the topic of blogging ethics in Virginia, notably God Save Virginia and Blogging Ethics, most of whom are following in the wake of the hibernating Shaun Kenney weblog, a long time defender of ethical blogging (see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and in his swan song here)
Most of these sites have inspired themselves in the wake of Ben Tribbett’s IP implosion, Lowell Feld’s continuing hackery at Raising Kaine, and the content and tactics employed in the 24th Senate District race by the SWACers.
We here at VOM want to know your thoughts. What makes an ethical blogger? Should there be a code of ethics? Obviously, we’re all pseudonyms, but as the tabloid bloggers start to implode and the greater Virginia blogosphere (Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian) becomes more sensitive to the unethical blogs, what’s next?
Sic Semper Tyrannis’s Norm Leahy blasts Lowell Feld at Raising Kaine for a blatantly dishonest attack on AG McDonnell.
This is what is so disgusting about the blogosphere, and what we hope to reform.
Anyone paying attention to the 87th HOD race? Paula Miller is in real trouble against Republican Henry Giffin…
If Giffin can keep up the fundraising, Miller may be in her last term. Of course on the flip side, the 88th District race between Mark Cole and Carlos Del Toro is a dead heat in terms of fundraising.
Of course, one might instantly point towards $11K of self-financing and $5K from Act Blue Virginia for Del Toro… but that’s not good news. More on this Democratic advantage later…
The resident VOM liberal disagrees with this post. VOM’s conservative and libertarian asked for some clarification (just what are the Democrats running on this year?) and she verbally berated us.
…which must mean Brian is right!
Of course, the DPVA does have an agenda, to which the RPV rightly responded. Still, BD has a point.
Kimball Payne over at The Daily Press has the scoop:
Democrats are scrambling to pick a candidate in the district after Republican Tricia Stall defeated Sen. Marty Williams in a GOP primary earlier this month, opening up the conservative leaning district.
Speculation had centered on Mugler and one-time House of Delegate candidate John Mil(l)er - who now works at Christopher Newport University. Mugler said in a release that he wanted to unite Democrats rather the subject them to a “quickly constructed firehouse primary” which could prove financially and politically expensive.
Sources say that while John Miller is ready to run, time (as in Miller’s ability to give 40+ hours to a full time campaign) may be an issue.
Should Miller choose to run, he faces an energized GOP base in a heavily Republican district. Add to it an already thinly stretched DPVA and Miller may not have the money or the time to make this a true contest.
Against Tricia Stall, Miller has two advantages: a sea of moderates disaffected by the primary, and Stall’s position on such issues as school choice and taxes.
Here’s the catch. Challenger campaigns must be flawless to have a chance at winning. If Miller can devote the time, if the grassroots can mobilize, if Miller has the connections to raise the cash, and if Miller can motivate moderate Republicans without alienating his Democratic base… then he has a chance.
This race isn’t a lock, but Miller faces a steeper incline than most challengers.
If true, then much ado about nothing. Staff shakeups happen all the time without much effect.
However, if Chuck Colgan is heading towards retirement, this seat’s potential as a GOP pickup becomes all the more realistic.
RTD reports today on that little known but highly influential tie-breaking vote known in the Virginia Senate as Bill Bolling.
“A 20-20 Senate is a 21-20 Republican Senate,” exhorts Sen. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath, whose district includes the overstuffed confines of The Homestead, where lobbyists played kissy-face with House Republicans two weeks earlier.Deeds’ point: Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a Republican, could cast the deciding vote as Senate presiding officer, ensuring the GOP maintains control of committees and the legislative calendar.
Bolling has said he believes that the lieutenant governor, the constitutionally designated tie-breaker, can even vote on organizational issues — and he is prepared to do so. But Bolling is more than a single vote. He is an insurance policy for fellow conservatives, who could finally dominate the Senate GOP caucus and, with Bolling’s “aye” or “nay,” the entire Senate.
Want more heartburn? Of the eight targeted seats in Virginia’s Senate (4 Dem, 4 GOP), the tectonics for massive change don’t appear likely.
6th Senate District (Nick Rerras vs. Ralph Northam)
ADVANTAGE: GOP
Northam has money. Rerras has grassroots, money, incumbency, and a Republican-leaning district. Now the Dem bloggers have been arguing that grassroots aren’t so bad here, but the reality on the ground is that it’s not that great either. If Northam can pick up steam, he might make it a contest. But Rerras isn’t taking this for granted, and there’s nothing worse than an incumbent motivated to hold their seat.
34th Senate District (Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis vs. Chap Petersen)
ADVANTAGE: GOP
Probably the most watched race due to personalities alone. JMDD has more money, more connections to get more money, and is just enough to the center on social issues to match her district. Chap (!) has the fundraising power, and certainly knows how to run a campaign. The question is, can it happen? If incumbency is any answer, Petersen is fighting an uphill battle, especially if DPVA chooses to widen the net to include races it cannot win (Holtzman-Vogel, Stuart, Stall, Hanger).
37th Senate District (Ken Cuccinelli vs. Janet Oleszek)
ADVANTAGE: GOP
Cooch has the best grassroots organization in the Virginia GOP. Against his fanatically loyal base is a school board member whose politics are left-leaning at best. Still, Cuccinelli presents and inviting target to Democrats hungry for one of the most conservative members of the Virginia Senate. Can it happen? Incumbency plus a terrible habit of implosion point towards two factors arguing against a Democratic win here, plus Cuccinelli’s grassroots, plus his fundraising, plus his name ID…
39th Senate District (Jay O’Brien vs. George Barker)
ADVANTAGE: GOP
O’Brien’s recent staff shakeup helps put some new blood into the campaign. On the opposite end, Barker is plowing along despite a nasty primary contest. Advantages here are surpisingly Democratic… though O’Brien gets points for incumbency and fundraising, Barker proved he had the grassroots to win. If the Dems pick up a seat, it could very well occur in the 39th.
Now before you go running off thinking all is rosy with the GOP, look towards the four GOP targeted seats:
17th Senate District (Edd Houck vs. Chris Yakabouski)
ADVANTAGE: DEMS
Does Yak have a shot? Sure he does. Chairman of the Spotsylvania Board of Supervisors with a district heavily Republican, it should be a cakewalk. The problem? Edd Houck has strong support from the VEA, NRA, and is just centrist enough not to anger the folks back home.
20th Senate District (Roscoe Reynolds vs. Jeff Evans)
ADVANTAGE: DEMS
The question here is whether Evans can raise the money. Incumbency and fundraising once again bring things to a fine point, and this seat (barring some kind of change in the national climate) should be safely Democratic.
29th Senate District (Chuck Colgan vs. Bob Fitzsimmonds)
ADVANTAGE: DEMS
Probably the best shot the GOP has at picking up a seat this year. Why? Fitzsimmonds is making his second run here in a district that is very much Republican. The catch? Colgan is no lightweight and will fight for every precinct. Once again, incumbency and fundraising are all against the challenger…
33rd Senate District (Mark Herring vs. Patricia Phillips)
ADVANTAGE: DEMS
The GOP’s version of the 6th District. Incumbency, fundraising, grassroots all side with Herring. Phillips proved she can motivate the Republican base, but can she build a coalition that can win in the 33rd?
FINAL OUTCOME: The GOP holds on to their four seats, while the Democrats hold on to their four. Result? A much more conservative Virginia Senate with a 23-17 split.
One or two seats don’t do it for the Dems. In fact, the Democrats have to sweep all four winnable races in order to take the Senate, while the GOP has to be successful in either defending one seat, or taking one from the Dems to hold onto their majority, and with it, redistricting.
November looks more and more like “Mission Impossible” for the Democrats in Virginia. Not what everyone wants to see or read, but until something seismic happens to motivate the voters against incumbents and for their challengers, incumbency is a powerful weapon, and this sweep isn’t happening.
… to the right (ever to the right).
Yeah yeah, they’re 9 to 1 nationwide… but stuff like this right before the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner just smells funny.
(D) Richmond Times-Dispatch, Pam Mastropaolo, copy editor, $1,650 to the Democratic Party of Virginia in February 2007, and $1,165 in February 2006.Mastropaolo didn’t reply to messages. Nor did the managing editor, Peggy Bellows.
That’s not entirely appropriate. But we’re sure benign, self-decpreciating explanations will be forthcoming.
Frankly, we’d be more interested to see what percentage of journalists are not donating to any political party, but scandals and impropriety are always better press…
Insight from Virginia Virtucon on the successor to Ed Gillespie over at RPV.
Every Thursday, we’ll put out the soapbox. You get to voice an opinion! Worthwhile links and commentary appreciated.
