Yes sirree.  Joe Stanley joins the Pantheon of those receiving the ass-stamp, for the crime of attacking the ODBA by comparing them to NAMBLA, as well the author of the infamous Miller comic, earning the reputation as a racist and “jewbaiter” (which no one in their right mind argues otherwise).

VOM has heard both Democrats and Republicans absolutely stunned (bemused is more like it) at this stunt.  It has the ability to tear down most of Joe’s political clients, as well as Ben Tribbett of Not Larry Sabato… though he no longer officially consults, I’m sure fewer people (like Chap Petersen) will want to be associated with NAMBLA-promoters like Ben Tribbett and Joe Stanley. 

Yuck.

The saddest part?  While Ben may not know any better, Joe certainly does.  What a shame.

First, Chris Stolle has a fundraising advantage both in cash-on-hand and a pipeline to his brother State Senator Ken Stolle.  Joe Bouchard is holding his own that will make this a contest, but given the fact that the COH balance is almost two months old, these numbers are more conjecture than fact…

Second, Stolle has made the decision to emphasize his conservative credentials… not a bad play considering the moderate reputation of his brother.  Bouchard has an opportunity to play this up, but Stolle has done a very good job of block-tackling this.

The third and final component is grassroots, and here is where Bouchard has a significant advantage over Stolle.  Some of this is merely the national climate.  Certainly the Stolle family is no stranger to the district, but Bouchard has hit the ground running pretty darned hard.  Demographics in the district don’t help.

In short, this race is a true toss-up.  Stolle and Bouchard will have to run the race of their lives in order to pull this into their respective columns.

The “Macacameister” Joe Stanley, founder of Yellow Dog Strategies, has been the consultant of many Democratic campaigns, including Creigh Deeds, Jim Webb, and a host of smaller DPVA races.

Reynolds is rumored to be done with Joe Stanley’s services.  Not only is a lawsuit looming against Joe Stanley, many of his clients get to make a decision: will they keep someone who uses NAMBLA as a campaign tactic?  Doubtful they will, as we can reportedly expect many of these firms/candidates to start disassociating themselves soon.

We’ll come out with a new chart ranking the swing on the House and Senate… graphs and explanations always help clear the air (and the hype).

The one dysfunction we’re learning about the “Big Line” is brevity.  We can’t put in all of the information we’d like to as to why certain races are viewed as they are.  For instance, some of us may disagree with the fact that we didn’t list all of the House races.  Some may disagree that certain races are even competitive, but we were careful to include the “swing factors” that are making the most impact.

Let the discussion (and on the ground recommendations) begin!

One of the major parties is drafting as part of their agenda the implementation of a 100-person special police force solely for the purposes of going after illegal immigrants (we kid you not) with no plan on what happens to this fully funded and idle force once these illegal immigrants are shipped back.

We thought we should do a brief poll… what do you think about this idea?

You’ll be surprised which party is proposing this idea…

Beyond that, whomever was behind the Roscoe Reynolds hit this week is a genius.  Reynolds is definitely reeling from the attack, though it may bring in bigger guns and more attention in the long haul… stay tuned!

If you want to know why, go to his site… and no, we’re not linking.

UPDATE:  For those of you who don’t get the joke, it’s a spin from a recurring sketch on Late Night with Conan O’Brien, used when people BS what they know.  Jim Carrey gets the drop on Conan in this clip:

Guess not everyone is a Conan O’Brien fan!  Too bad the “ass stamp” couldn’t be applied in RL, Faux News, or to people in general.  It’s like a little red A…

(h/t to Bearing Drift)

Note to self:  Don’t go videotaping at the behest of some DPVA e-mail and get caught drinking alcohol!!!

First, DPVA can’t even get their own site right, then they come out with this?!?! 

Embarassing is the unanimous vote at VOM.

VOM Liberal is severely non-plussed.  VOM Conservative is laughing hysterically, while VOM libertarian says he has nothing to brag about.

Someone needs to fire their web consultant.  This would be a huge ê if we ranked state parties.

UPDATE:  Bearing Drift calls on State Senator Creigh Deeds to fulfill his Blogs United promise and get DPVA to take the site down.  Well… they don’t say that… but Deeds should before too many people find out about this donkey of a site.

What is interesting is that Republicans have managed to turn at least one seat into a potential pickup (Colgan), while the Democrats are looking better in at least one seat (O’Brien).

Worse still, Democratic approval ratings in Washington are at 14%.  Bush doesn’t come in much better with low-to-mid 20s, but Northern Virginia politics are centered at the national level.  Polls are reflecting a deep dissatisfaction with the status quo, so while Republicans have much to defend, the DPVA has to offer an alternative.  Quickly. 

If the election were held today, VOM would call it for the Republicans 23-17, with two seats changing hands.  Naturally, this is way premature, and we’re certain at least one Dem seat will come off the “lean” category after the September reports come in.  That having been said, Republicans are (surprisingly) in a better position to win their pick-up than the Democrats… a 24-16 Virginia Senate is not an impossibility.

Of course, we disagree with some of Mr. James Martin’s findings… but imitation is the highest form of flattery!

Get ‘em while they’re hot!

Sources on the ground say the Dems worked hard, but the GOP worked harder.  Both sides seem to be trying to figure out what went wrong/right.

A win is a win.  But not so close.  Not in Alexandria.

The trick at VOM is getting all three of us to agree on what the numbers mean, where the campaigns really are, who inflated their numbers… you get the idea.

UPDATE:  New Big Line up, with some updates waiting for information…

Also featuring the big news of the week concerning the abuser fees and Governor Tim Kaine’s mysterious deletion of the provision that would have applied the abuser fees evenly… this one is huge folks.

DEVELOPING…

One of the most egregious errors of the “abuser fee” debate is the fact that the fines apply only to Virginians, and not to out of state drivers. 

So VOM’s crack bookies and oddsmakers did a bit of research in the past bills… was it the dastardly House Republicans who did this nefarious deed???

House Passed Version – Applies to Residents and Non-Residents

§ 46.2-206.1. Imposition of certain additional fees on certain drivers.

B. The civil remedial fees established by this section shall be assessed on any resident of Virginia operating a motor vehicle on the highways of Virginia, including persons to whom Virginia driver’s licenses, commercial driver’s licenses, or learner’s permits have been issued pursuant to this title; persons operating motor vehicles without licenses or whose license has been revoked or suspended; and persons operating motor vehicles with a license issued by a jurisdiction outside Virginia.

Guess not… well then, it must of been those crotchety old Senate Republicans ramming this through in conference!

General Assembly Conference Report – Applies to Residents and Non-Residents

§ 46.2-206.1. Imposition of certain additional fees on certain drivers.

B. The civil remedial fees established by this section shall be assessed on any resident of Virginia operating a motor vehicle on the highways of Virginia, including persons to whom Virginia driver’s licenses, commercial driver’s licenses, or learner’s permits have been issued pursuant to this title; persons operating motor vehicles without licenses or whose license has been revoked or suspended; and persons operating motor vehicles with a license issued by a jurisdiction outside Virginia.

Ooo… strike two!  Then who on earth deleted the line stating that out-of-state drivers would have to pay the same fines as taxpaying Virginians?

Governor’s Substitute§ 46.2-206.1. Imposition of certain additional fees on certain drivers.

B. The civil remedial fees established by this section shall be assessed on any resident of Virginia operating a motor vehicle on the highways of Virginia, including persons to whom Virginia driver’s licenses, commercial driver’s licenses, or learner’s permits have been issued pursuant to this title; and persons operating motor vehicles without licenses or whose license has been revoked or suspended.

You’re reading this right… GOVERNOR TIMOTHY KAINE DELETED THE SECTION IMPOSING FEES ON OUT OF STATE DRIVERS?!?!?!?!

We give this our four-toupee salute.  Or perhaps a four Jim-Moran-punching-a-kid salute…

Ouch, Mr. Speaker!

UPDATE!

Almost like the real thing!

Another American icon passes away.

Last year, the rumors went flying that AG Bob McDonnell might be considering a run for Senate in 2008.  This doesn’t appear likely at all, and even less so with Bill Bolling. 

While most Republicans would love to see one or the other run for an open U.S. Senate seat vacated by John Warner, it looks as if both GOP gubernatorial candidates are still set for a collision course in 2009.

Regardless, if things change either Bolling or McDonnell will have to muscle past Rep. Tom Davis, whose prep work for 2008 has seemingly begun in earnest.

Of course, the VOM liberal reminds us all that any GOP primary winner will have to go up against a fresh and unchallenged Mark Warner, who will indeed be seeking the Democratic nomination for Senate.  Tough go no matter what in ’08 for the GOP.