Lady Bird Johnson Dies at 92
July 12, 2007 in Uncategorized
Virginia Big Line
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VIRGINIA SENATE 1st Senate District (R) Tricia Stall (3-1) Tricia continues to plow ahead with grassroots and phones... (D) John Miller (5-1) Still a lackluster effort... we've yet to see the spark that is going to make this a win. 6th Senate District (R) Nick Rerras (3-1) Democrats aren't going away, but neither is Rerras... é (D) Ralph Northam (5-1) Astroturf for grassroots won't make up for fundraising advantage 11th Senate District é (R) Steve Martin (2-1) Martin knows his district and represents it well... ê (D) Alex McMurtrie (5-1) Self-financed candidate, but where are the grassroots? 13th Senate District (R) Fred Quayle (2-1) This one is out of reach for the Democrats ê (D) Steve Heretick (7-1) Credible candidate, wrong district. 17th Senate District (D) Edd Houck (2-1) Edd gets hit on immigration... abuser fee stunt wasn't all that great. é (R) Chris Yakabouski (5-1) Good hit on illegal immigration makes Yak a leader... no Edd signs in Spotsy either! 20th Senate District ê (D) Roscoe Reynolds (3-1) Joe Stanley and Ben Tribbett come to the rescue? é (R) Jeff Evans (3-1) Great blog hit on Roscoe makes the Dems bring in the heavy artillery! 22nd Senate District é (R) Ralph Smith (2-1) That cracking sound you hear from Roanoke??? ê (D) Michael Breiner (8-1) ...it's the sound of the Brenier campaign's back being broken. This race is done. 24th Senate District (R) Emmett Hanger (2-1) Grassroots still on fire... infighting doesn't help. (D) David Cox (6-1) Conservative vs. moderate infighting is getting worse... ê (L) Arin Sime (15-1) STD says "no thanks" to Sime, Myron Rhodes. 26th Senate District (R) Mark Obenshain (2-1) Obenshain for AG? Not yet... first things, first. (D) Maxine Roles (6-1) Tough, tough uphill climb in the Valley. 27th Senate District (R) Jill Holtzman-Vogel (2-1) Still plugging along, campaign staff changes a bit odd. é (D) Karen Schultz (5-1) Tate aftermath helping Schultz a bit... 28th Senate District (R) Richard Stuart (2-1) Chichester's money, Howell's politics... but Stafford could prove problematic. ê (D) Albert Pollard (5-1) Stupid debate attack on Stuart for prosecuting drug lords... 29th Senate District ê (D) Chuck Colgan (3-1) Lackluster fundraising makes this race officially a toss-up. é (R) Bob Fitzsimmonds (3-1) Strong fundraising makes this challenger race a potential GOP pick-up. 33rd Senate District ê (D) Mark Herring (3-1) More money, favorable demographics leans this race left. é (R) Patricia Phillips (5-1) Surprisingly strong showing in fundraising... 34th Senate District (R) Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis (3-1) Strong fundraising advantage, plenty more where that came from... ê (D) Chap Petersen (4-1) Hits JMDD on abuser fees... shortly after waffling on them himself. duh. 37th Senate District é (R) Ken Cuccinelli (3-1) Good fundraising, great grassroots, and on the offensive against very liberal opposition. ê (D) Janet Oleszek (5-1) Downgrade here... Janet just isn't getting the traction against a strong Cuccinelli campaign 39th Senate District ê (R) Jay O'Brien (3-1) O'Brien is in the fight of his life here... é (D) George Barker (5-1) Finally a bump that is earned. Barker is making the push... HOUSE OF DELEGATES 1st House District é (R) Terry Kilgore (2-1) Terry's got nothing to worry about here... ê (D) Jerry Taylor (10-1) Best o' luck, me boy-o 5th House District (R) Bill Carrico (3-1) Close NOVA matchup é (D) Suzie Dixon-Garner (4-1) Picking up steam, getting stronger 6th House District (R) Anne Crockett-Stark (3-1) Tough district, but managable ê (D) Bill Thomas (4-1) Needs more $$$ to make this seriously competitive 7th House District ê (D) Peggy Frank (3-1) Slack fundrasing made this a contest... é (R) Dave Nutter (3-1) Strong fundraising, competitive campaign. 9th House District é (D) Eric Ferguson (3-1) Fundraising advantage, previous campaign in '05, good district to work from é (R) Charles Poindexter (4-1) Heck of an effort, isn't going down or away without a fight! 11th House District (D) Lee Ware (2-1) Roanoke Dem has six figures in the warchest é (I) Mac MaCadden (9-1) Doubt this will become interesting; $10K is a voice. 13th House District é (R) Bob Marshall (2-1) Uber-conservative benefits from abuser fee opposition... ê (D) Bruce Rommelt (6-1) Ain't. Gonna. Happen. 14th House District é (R) Danny Marshall (2-1) Silly Dems... "silly" as in even Gov. Kaine defended Marshall... ê (D) Adam Tomer (6-1) Kindly say "thanks" to the Joint Democratic Caucus for ruining your shot... 16th House District ê (R) Donald Merricks (3-1) Heir to Robert Hurt has a tough race/district é (D) Andy Parker (3-1) Good district for the Dems... 19th House District é (I) Lacey Putney (2-1) Sizeable warchest barely makes this a race (D) Lewis Medlin (6-1) Why is he "medlin" in this race? Is this mic on? 21st House District (R) John Welch (3-1) Fundraising and name ID are the kickers... é (D) Bob Mathieson (4-1) Nice warchest makes this a potential D pickup. 26th House District é (R) Matt Lohr (2-1) Solid district, good warchest, good name ID. ê (D) Carolyn Frank (6-1) Tough race... needs the cash and the grassroots to be serious. 28th House District (R) Bill Howell (2-1) It's the Speaker of the House... what's the big deal? é (D) Clyde Matthews (6-1) Abuser fees! 31st House District é (R) Scott Linamfelter (2-1) No one outworks Scott... ê (D) Bill Day (5-1) Tough district, tough race, not enough cash (yet) 32nd House District ê (D) David Poisson (3-1) Lots of cash may make this R district tough to win... é (R) Lynn Chapman (4-1) ...but Lynn is the next Paul Harris for the RPV. Good district too. 33rd House District ê (R) Joe May (3-1) Rumors of poor staff and conservative opposition put this seat in play. é (D) Marty Martinez (4-1) Good fundraising performance and a mobilized grassroots game... watch out! 34th House District ê (R) Dave Hunt (3-1) Callahan's old district; big ol' target on it. é (D) Maggie Vanderhye (3-1) Excellent showing for cash, inside the beltway, and good grassroots... 35th House District é (D) Steve Shannon (2-1) Warchest looks OK, district looks good. (R) Arthur Purves (6-1) Knew it was a tough race, jumped in anyway. Working hard, too. 40th House District é (R) Tim Hugo (2-1) Tough district, nice warchest, good network of volunteers. ê (D) Rex Simmons (5-1) Gotta rely on something other than ActBlue and demographics... 45th House District (D) David Englin (3-1) There's no crying in baseball! é (R) Mark Allen (4-1) Can Republicans win in NOVA? This race will say a lot if it's won... 50th House District (R) Jackson Miller (3-1) Short line to cash, didn't have much time in the House... é (D) Jeannette Rishell (4-1) Is bringing the wood... will probably get a big line upgrade by Labor Day... 51st House District (R) Faisal Gill (3-1) Will have to overcome rumors, get on issues to carry the day. é (D) Paul Nichols (3-1) Potential Dem pickup due to nasty GOP primary... 52nd House District é (R) Jeffery Frederick (2-1) $330K in the bank. Yes, $330K.... ê (D) Chris Brown (6-1) Can't use the abuser fees on Jeffy... don't see this one happenin'. 54th House District (R) Bobby Orrock (2-1) Gets token opposition... but this, plus abuser fees, plus a skimpy warchest means effort. é (I) Kimbra Kincheloe (6-1) Ever hear of VVAW? You will after this... 59th House District ê (I) Watt Abbitt (3-1) This one is going to be close... é (D) Connie Brennan (3-1) Can the Albemarle Dems reach out to rural African-American voters? 67th House District ê (D) Chuck Caputo (3-1) Was gifted the 67th in 2005, won't be so easy this time... é (R) Mark Cadin (3-1) Caputo has the cash advantage, but everything else points to this as a pick-up. 68th House District ê (I) Katherine Waddell (4-1) Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. é (R) Manoli Loupassi (3-1) Nice warchest, would be stronger if not a three-way race. (D) Bill Grogan (4-1) Three way race is the only bit of bright light, but his cash flow looks OK 72nd House District é (R) Jim Massie (2-1) Henrico's GOP won't let this one go. ê (D) Tom Herbert (8-1) Not a chance... 78th House District (R) John Cosgrove (2-1) May have to get the lead out on grassroots and fundraising, but should be OK (D) Michael Meyer (6-1) Tough contest in this district... and Cosgrove isn't going to lay down for long 82nd House District é (R) Harry Purkey (2-1) Coming back from '05 challenge, Purkey needs a bit more cash (D) Bob MacIver (5-1) Running hard... if he gets more cash in the bank, this could become quite competitive. 83rd House District (R) Chris Stolle (3-1) A conservative named Stolle? GASP! é (D) Joe Bouchard (3-1) Still running behind Stolle, but running well. 86th House District (R) Tom Rust (2-1) OK district, but huge fundraising advantage é (D) Jay Donahue (5-1) Been running a very skillful race... we're impressed, anyhow. 87th House District ê (D) Paula Miller (4-1) ... is in trouble, and not the kind of trouble easily gotten out of é (R) Hank Giffin (3-1) Admiral Giffin is doing everything right in a district he should win. GOP pickup here. 88th House District é (R) Mark Cole (2-1) Slow and steady fundraising, slow and steady candidate. ê (D) Carlos del Toro (5-1) "Jabba del Toro" isn't walking his district as he should... 96th House District é (R) Brenda Pogge (3-1) Nagging Noll is a nuisance negating notions of near-sighted nanny-staters ê (D) Troy Farlow (5-1) Translation: Tell Noll to shut up if you want to win.
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