RTD: Oh yeah, THAT Lt. Governor…

June 25, 2007 in Virginia Senate

RTD reports today on that little known but highly influential tie-breaking vote known in the Virginia Senate as Bill Bolling.

“A 20-20 Senate is a 21-20 Republican Senate,” exhorts Sen. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath, whose district includes the overstuffed confines of The Homestead, where lobbyists played kissy-face with House Republicans two weeks earlier.Deeds’ point: Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a Republican, could cast the deciding vote as Senate presiding officer, ensuring the GOP maintains control of committees and the legislative calendar.

Bolling has said he believes that the lieutenant governor, the constitutionally designated tie-breaker, can even vote on organizational issues — and he is prepared to do so. But Bolling is more than a single vote. He is an insurance policy for fellow conservatives, who could finally dominate the Senate GOP caucus and, with Bolling’s “aye” or “nay,” the entire Senate.

Want more heartburn? Of the eight targeted seats in Virginia’s Senate (4 Dem, 4 GOP), the tectonics for massive change don’t appear likely.

6th Senate District (Nick Rerras vs. Ralph Northam)
ADVANTAGE: GOP
Northam has money. Rerras has grassroots, money, incumbency, and a Republican-leaning district. Now the Dem bloggers have been arguing that grassroots aren’t so bad here, but the reality on the ground is that it’s not that great either. If Northam can pick up steam, he might make it a contest. But Rerras isn’t taking this for granted, and there’s nothing worse than an incumbent motivated to hold their seat.

34th Senate District (Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis vs. Chap Petersen)
ADVANTAGE: GOP
Probably the most watched race due to personalities alone. JMDD has more money, more connections to get more money, and is just enough to the center on social issues to match her district. Chap (!) has the fundraising power, and certainly knows how to run a campaign. The question is, can it happen? If incumbency is any answer, Petersen is fighting an uphill battle, especially if DPVA chooses to widen the net to include races it cannot win (Holtzman-Vogel, Stuart, Stall, Hanger).

37th Senate District (Ken Cuccinelli vs. Janet Oleszek)
ADVANTAGE: GOP
Cooch has the best grassroots organization in the Virginia GOP. Against his fanatically loyal base is a school board member whose politics are left-leaning at best. Still, Cuccinelli presents and inviting target to Democrats hungry for one of the most conservative members of the Virginia Senate. Can it happen? Incumbency plus a terrible habit of implosion point towards two factors arguing against a Democratic win here, plus Cuccinelli’s grassroots, plus his fundraising, plus his name ID…

39th Senate District (Jay O’Brien vs. George Barker)
ADVANTAGE: GOP
O’Brien’s recent staff shakeup helps put some new blood into the campaign. On the opposite end, Barker is plowing along despite a nasty primary contest. Advantages here are surpisingly Democratic… though O’Brien gets points for incumbency and fundraising, Barker proved he had the grassroots to win. If the Dems pick up a seat, it could very well occur in the 39th.

Now before you go running off thinking all is rosy with the GOP, look towards the four GOP targeted seats:

17th Senate District (Edd Houck vs. Chris Yakabouski)
ADVANTAGE: DEMS
Does Yak have a shot? Sure he does. Chairman of the Spotsylvania Board of Supervisors with a district heavily Republican, it should be a cakewalk. The problem? Edd Houck has strong support from the VEA, NRA, and is just centrist enough not to anger the folks back home.

20th Senate District (Roscoe Reynolds vs. Jeff Evans)
ADVANTAGE: DEMS
The question here is whether Evans can raise the money. Incumbency and fundraising once again bring things to a fine point, and this seat (barring some kind of change in the national climate) should be safely Democratic.

29th Senate District (Chuck Colgan vs. Bob Fitzsimmonds)
ADVANTAGE: DEMS
Probably the best shot the GOP has at picking up a seat this year. Why? Fitzsimmonds is making his second run here in a district that is very much Republican. The catch? Colgan is no lightweight and will fight for every precinct. Once again, incumbency and fundraising are all against the challenger…

33rd Senate District (Mark Herring vs. Patricia Phillips)
ADVANTAGE: DEMS
The GOP’s version of the 6th District. Incumbency, fundraising, grassroots all side with Herring. Phillips proved she can motivate the Republican base, but can she build a coalition that can win in the 33rd?

FINAL OUTCOME: The GOP holds on to their four seats, while the Democrats hold on to their four. Result? A much more conservative Virginia Senate with a 23-17 split.

One or two seats don’t do it for the Dems. In fact, the Democrats have to sweep all four winnable races in order to take the Senate, while the GOP has to be successful in either defending one seat, or taking one from the Dems to hold onto their majority, and with it, redistricting.

November looks more and more like “Mission Impossible” for the Democrats in Virginia. Not what everyone wants to see or read, but until something seismic happens to motivate the voters against incumbents and for their challengers, incumbency is a powerful weapon, and this sweep isn’t happening.